Harris is the Democrat nominee for president. Who will be her running mate?

I interrupt my series on “the Unbelievable Trump” to take a first glance at Kamala Harris’ next important decision. On Sunday afternoon, Biden announced that he was no longer running for the presidency in the November elections. He then announced he was endorsing his Vice-President, Kamala Harris, to run for president. Somewhat surprisingly, all her potential rivals (Newsome, Whitmer, Buttigieg) also endorsed her and she has had a quite smooth beginning to her campaign. Harris raised over 84 million dollars in the first twenty-four hours, with 62% from new donors. She has recruited over 74,000 new volunteers for her campaign. She has obtained the support of well over half of the delegates to the Democratic Convention in Chicago next month, so for all practical purposes, she is the nominee.

Her next important decision is to choose a running mate. The selection process itself could be a valuable opportunity for Harris to (re) introduce herself to the electorate. Usually, a Vice-President is selected to bring “balance” to the ticket: perhaps regional or ideological balance, someone with strengths that neutralize the weaknesses of the presidential candidate, or perhaps someone from a battleground state. Legally, this person cannot be from the same state as the presidential nominee, thus excluding Newsome. I don’t think the U.S. is ready to have two women on the ticket, so Whitmer or another capable woman will probably not be selected. Here are the top four candidates….in my not so humble opinion.

Josh Shapiro is the popular governor of Pennsylvania. He defeated a Trump endorsed candidate in the governor race two years ago in a landslide. He is considered “centrist-left” for his support of both abortion and school vouchers. He would probably enable the Democratic ticket to counter the GOP arguments that Harris is too liberal. Shapiro’s appeal would probably be enough to keep “must-win” Pennsylvania in the Democrat column.

Mark Kelly is a popular senator from Arizona. He is a former NASA astronaut and a Navy veteran. Given that Republicans attack Democrats on immigration policies, Kelly would be helpful on this issue. He has also criticized Biden’s immigration policies, but he has offered strong, wise suggestions for immigration reform. His wife, Gabby Giffords, was a Representative in the U.S. Congress and then became a gun-control activist after she survived being shot in 2011. She would be a strong asset in the campaign. Mark Kelly on the ticket would probably keep battleground Arizona on the Democrat side.

Probably the candidate that Harris knows best is Roy Cooper, the Democrat governor of the red state of North Carolina. Their paths frequently crossed when they served as their state’s Attorney General. He is appreciated for his pragmatism. If he were her running mate, it is an open question whether North Carolina and its electors would come into the Democrat column in November.

Kentucky’s governor, Andy Beshear, is an interesting option. In 2020, Trump won Kentucky by 26 percentage points. Nevertheless, Beshear has been elected governor of the “Blue Grass” state… twice! He is a deacon in his church and Is well regarded for his compassion and for his skill in handling Covid and other natural disasters. In his previous races, he won a considerable portion of the evangelical vote, and perhaps earn votes from one of Trump’s main constituencies.

Who will Harris select? Watch and see!

Trump is Unbelievable! (Part 4) The facts don’t support his claims about the 2020 election being stolen

For the last four years, former president Trump has repeatedly claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. He claimed that he actually won the election, but irregularities in key battleground states cheated him out of his victory. In addition, he has required that Republicans who want his endorsement in state elections must agree with him, that is, they must also become “election deniers”. The official results revealed that Biden won the electoral college 306 to Trump’s 232 electors. Biden won the crucial battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

Fact #1 – As was his legal right, Trump appealed the election results in courts across the country. Frequently, these courts were headed up by judges that Trump himself had appointed. Trump lost every appeal!

Fact #2 – When he was president, Trump picked William Barr to be his Attorney General. Throughout his presidency Barr consistently favored Trump in every legal decision. Nevertheless, Barr did not agree with Trump about the 2020 election results. After investigating the results in the key states, Barr concluded, “We have not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election.”

Fact #3 – The most important example comes from the state of Georgia. Although usually a Republican state, elections have been more competitive in the last decade. The Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the official in charge of overseeing the election, (and a conservative Republican with an impeccable reputation) announced that Biden won the election in Georgia. Republicans demanded a recount. Raffensperger implemented a hand recount/audit of the 5 million votes that were cast, and the recount confirmed that Biden had won. On January 2, 2021, Trump telephoned Raffensperger and pressured him to overturn the election. Trump begged, “I just want to find 11,780 votes.” Not only did Raffensperger refused to become complicit in Trump’s crime, he had taped the phone call as evidence. The transcript of the phone call as well as the tape itself are available online for everyone to see and hear.

The 2020 election was not stolen by the Democrats. Trump’s phone call demonstrates that, in fact, Trump tried to steal the election, but was caught red-handed.

Dear MAGA readers, if you value the truth, do not spread Trump’s lie about a stolen election. Have the courage and integrity to face the facts. Trump lost.

Trump is Unbelievable! (Part 3) The facts won’t allow us to believe his comments about crime

President Biden’s announcement yesterday that he will no longer run for re-election and his endorsement of Kamala Harris is rightfully shaking up the race for the White House. I will analyze this historical event later this week. Meanwhile, I will continue my series of the unbelievable Trump.

Crime – On my blog last week, I brought facts to bear on former president Trump’s promises on the border and the budget. Today, let’s compare Trump’s affirmations about violent crime in the United States with the facts. Trump, like most opposition candidates, describes the contemporary situation in the worst possible ways. He stated that the country is “awash in bloodshed and violent crime” and that “our crime rate is going up while crime statistics all over the world are going down”. According to Trump, violent crime has increased under the Biden administration, and this is due to Biden’s “failed” policies. The truth is quite different.

Fact #1 – Violent crime actually increased during Trump’s administration and has decreased during Biden’s. In fact, the largest recent annual increase in the murder rate took place in 2020 (Trump’s last year in office, not under Biden’s watch). In that year, murders rose by almost 30% and assaults by more than 10% (Source: FBI). During the first two years of Biden’s presidency, murders fell by 7%, and in 2023 by 13%, now approaching pre-Covid levels.

Immigrants and Crime – It is a sad fact of our national history that immigrants have frequently been scapegoated, that is, blamed for the ills of society that they did not commit. This has happened to the Irish, the Italians, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Chinese, and many other immigrants. It was easy for white, Anglo-Saxon Protestants to blame newcomers to our country, especially if they were people of color or if they practiced a different religion.

Trump has continued this practice of scapegoating. He began his first campaign in 2015 claiming, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best…. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” Trump has continued his anti-immigrant rants for over nine years. And now, he bolsters his lies about increased crime, by accusing foreign governments of emptying their jails and insane asylums and sending these “bad apples” to our southern border. Many MAGA supporters believe these lies, but they shouldn’t.

Fact #2 – Foreign born immigrants have a much lower crime rate than U.S. citizens. There is parallel data such as when undocumented immigration plummeted in 2020, murders rose by 30%. Nevertheless, there are numerous studies that back up my affirmation. I refer my readers to the book “Immigration and Crime: Taking Stock” by Kubrin and Ousey for an analysis of these studies. Common sense must also be considered. Why would undocumented immigrants, after risking their lives to travel to and cross over the border and put down roots in a new country, then expose their families and themselves to deportation, by committing violent crime?

As always, I encourage all my readers, especially my MAGA friends, to check out these figures for themselves to see if Trump is telling the truth or lying. In tomorrow’s post, I will shine the light on Trump’s ad nauseum claim that the 2020 election was stolen.

Trump is Unbelievable! (Part 2) The facts won’t allow us to believe his promises about the budget

In my post yesterday, I addressed Trump’s failed attempt to resolve the “border crisis”. In his 2016 presidential campaign, he promised to build a wall along the 2000-mile U.S. border with Mexico. In fact, he only constructed 52 miles of new wall.

Today I will shine the light on his grandiose claims for the U.S. economy. He affirmed that during his presidency (2017-2021), our country’s economy was the most successful in the history of the world. He promised that during a second term, he would unleash the economy and it would grow even faster. He promised to cut taxes for the wealthy, just like he did in his first term. Although he has made these fantastic, unbelievable affirmations, he has conveniently chosen to omit talking about the budget. What happened to our national budget and our national debt during Trump’s presidency? What happens when you cut your income (via tax breaks for the rich) and continue to spend like a drunken sailor? Here is the sad truth.

Fact #1 – The national debt increased more under Trump than in any other four-year presidential term (Source – The U.S. Department of the Treasury). The debt under Trump increased by 8.18 trillion dollars (Trillion with a T). By comparison, let’s look at the debt increase under the three previous presidencies. These presidents each served two terms for a total of 8 years. Therefore, a four-year average needs to be calculated for comparison purposes.

Bill Clinton (1993-2001) total increase 1.4 trillion dollars. Four-year average 0.7 trillion dollars.

George W. Bush (2001-2009) total increase 6.1 trillion dollars. Four-year average 3.05 trillion dollars.

Barack Obama (2009-2017) total increase 8.34 trillion dollars. Four-year average 4.17 trillion dollars.

Joe Biden (2021 to the present) total increase 6.17 trillion dollars. Extrapolating to four years would lead to about 7.2 trillion dollars. Increases in our debt have happened under both Republican and Democrat administrations. None have been especially good at living within a budget. All have claimed extenuating circumstances (wars, Covid, etc.).

Fact #2 – Trump’s businesses have not generally been successful. Trump University failed and was a disaster. His real estate deals were kept afloat by overestimating properties’ worth to obtain loans and underestimating their value for tax purposes. As a result of this tax evasion, Trump is now barred from doing business in New York.

I invite my readers to check out these figures.

In my post on Monday, I will continue my series on the unbelievable Trump. I will analyze Trump’s affirmations about crime in the United States, especially about crimes allegedly committed by undocumented immigrants.

Trump is Unbelievable! The facts won’t allow us to believe his promises about the border and the budget

Biden and Trump both have records to run on… or to hide from. God has given each of us a brain and a conscience to evaluate their actions as a former or current president. I will analyze Biden’s record in upcoming posts, but in my writings today and tomorrow, I will address Trump’s promises and practice in two areas: the Border and the Budget.

The Border

Ever since his escalator descent when he began his first presidential campaign in 2015, the southern border has been one of Trump’s principal issues. A major thrust of his solution to the “immigration crisis” was his promise to build a wall along the two-thousand-mile border between Mexico and the United States. In fact, the phrase “Build the wall… Build the wall” became the standard chant at MAGA rallies. Last night, Trump promised that he would complete the wall, although he had already “finished most of it”.

Fact # 1 – During his previous four-year presidential administration, Trump built a whopping 52 miles of new wall (according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection report). He had the full authority of the White House and a Republican controlled Congress, yet he only constructed fifty-two miles of new wall. We should evaluate people, and especially presidential candidates, by their “fruits”, that is, by their actions (or in this case, inaction). Given this fact, it is incredible that anyone would believe Trump’s words about the border.

Fact # 2 – Earlier this year, the conservative Republican Senator James Lankford was the main author of a tough immigration bill in the Senate. It included everything that Republicans wanted in immigration legislation. Republicans were in favor of the bill… until they weren’t. What happened? Trump urged Republican officials to vote against the legislation. Trump did not want to solve the “immigration crisis”; he wanted the crisis to continue as a political issue for his campaign. This was pure hypocrisy.

In my post tomorrow, I will analyze Trump’s promises about the budget and the national debt. Meanwhile, seek the truth, follow the truth, live the truth. Do not believe lies, whoever they come from.

The Supreme Court and Total Audacity

The Supreme Court and Total Immunity

When Donald Trump made his claim for the total immunity of presidents, I thought it was an outrageous attempt by a guilty, out-of-touch liar making a last-ditch effort to avoid serious criminal convictions in the courts of Georgia, D.C., and Florida. I still believe that. Nevertheless, the Supreme Court’s ruling last Monday was even more outrageous. It essentially declared that all U.S. presidents are above the law, transforming the presidency into a monarchy.

SCOTUS tried to make a distinction between official, governmental acts (for which the president would be immune) and private, personal actions (for which the president could be criminally liable). At a superficial level, this sounds reasonable, but it is fraught with problems. Almost any action, if it involves any part of the governmental apparatus, can be declared official and, therefore, provide grounds for immunity.

Weaponizing the Federal Government – In the last decade, both Republicans and Democrats have accused the other side of utilizing the instruments of the government (The Department of Justice, the IRS, etc.) to take down political opponents. The prosecution of Hunter Biden and the current charges against Trump are examples of this alleged weaponization. Nevertheless, under the new SCOTUS ruling, if a sitting president gave the order to the DOJ, that act could be an official governmental action and, therefore, the president would be immune.

Trump – Applying the SCOTUS ruling to the cases against Trump, he would probably be declared immune from the charges leveled against him for his actions/inactions regarding the insurrection of January 6, 2021. He could be declared immune from charges for the mishandling of secret government documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. He would probably be immune from the charge of overturning the election results (eg. phone call to Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger) and so on.

Historical Precedent – This SCOTUS ruling goes against all examples in our U.S. history. The founders of our country and the signers of our Constitution had just fought a long war to break free from the “total immunity” of a king. They gave no hint that a president would be “above the law”. They knew that power can lead to corruption and that absolute power “corrupts absolutely”, and therefore they put restrictions and limits on the presidency. Former president Nixon would be provided immunity for his Watergate crime under this ruling.

Crazy Audacity – Trump made another crazy claim. He stated that he made his appeal to the Supreme Court not merely for his own protection, but also to protect Obama and Biden from criminal prosecution. It is tragic when people believe such self-serving lies. No president is above the law. Not Obama. Not Biden. Not Trump.

Dear Joe…. Thank you for your service. It is time to step aside.

Dear Joe,

First of all, thank you for your service in public office, as a Senator for 36 years, as Vice-President under Obama, and now as President. You have served well and have a strong legacy. Even when they disagree with you, in their heart of hearts, even your critics acknowledge your concern for the most vulnerable in our society. Your wisdom in international challenges has been welcomed and appreciated. You have stabilized our economy with growth and job creation, and you have lowered inflation.

Nevertheless, I think it is time for you to step aside and give the next generation their opportunity. The main reason is not your diminishing physical ability and mental acuity. (That happens to many of us.) I believe you would serve well if you had four more years in the White House. The problem is that so much attention is given to your occasional verbal gaffes, that the unethical character and flawed actions of ex-President Trump receive little attention. For example, in the “Debate”, Trump told more than 30 serious lies, but these are hardly mentioned.

I believe that Trump is very dangerous for our country (he is a convicted felon who is guilty of sexual assault, trying to steal the 2020 election, invoking a riot in our Capitol, and supporting autocrats around the world, including Putin in his invasion and war against Ukraine. The most consistent aspect of his character are his lies.) In “normal” courts he would become convicted again and again, but due to the actions of the stacked Supreme Court, Trump will not be tried again before the election. The best scenario for the country is that Trump loses the election in November. Joe, you are no longer the best candidate to beat Trump. Other Democrats (Whitmer, Harris, Newsome, and others) are now better prepared. For the good of our country and the world, step aside.

Cognitive Dissonance and our Political Polarization

Back in the 1950s, Leon Festinger popularized the psychological theory of “cognitive dissonance”. This dissonance occurs when people experience two or more values, beliefs, practices, factual evidence, choices, etc. that are in conflict with each other. This often produces stress. Humans frequently strive to reduce this stress by “maximizing/minimizing” or “re-interpreting” one of these factors to bring it into consonance with the others.

This cognitive dissonance can easily be observed in our political polarization. On Thursday evening there will be a televised debate between Biden and Trump. The debate has not yet occurred. The candidates might perform poorly or well. They might make mental gaffes or perhaps they might be clear and insightful. Even though the debate has not yet happened, our minds are hard at work and we “know” which candidate “won” the debate. Trump’s supporters will claim that he won the debate and explain away any defect. Those who support Biden will do likewise. The truths spoken in the debate get lost in the shuffle, because “my preferred candidate is obviously the better public servant and must have won the debate. My favorite news source (Fox, MSNBC, etc.) agrees with me, so, it is clear that my candidate won.”

Another example is the role of chanting at political rallies. It is common for MAGA supporters to chant “Build the wall! Build the wall!” as the solution to the immigration crisis. The fact that most people at the rally are chanting the same slogan gives the impression that a wall must be the right answer. Nevertheless, it drowns out the dissonance of the weak points of the argument. Trump had four years to build the wall, but he did not do it. In addition, a wall might slow the flow of immigrants, but it would not stop the drug traffic. The drug trade is so lucrative that “better” methods will be used: boats, airplanes, drones, tunnels, and the border with Canada.

On the other side of the political divide are the pro-choice advocates who chant “My body, my choice! My body, my choice!” There is some truth in the chant, but here again, the chanted slogan drowns out the weakness of their position. At some point in the pregnancy, the fetus acquires some human rights. Pro-choice advocates are quite reticent about assigning a point in time for these rights, but Roe stated that it was at the beginning of the third trimester.

Our society is in trouble. The third of the population on “my side” thinks the third on the “other side” are crazy and bereft of any moral compass. Many have therefore resolved, “I won’t listen to my opponents. I will choose only those news sources and friends that agree with me.” Such a life is not worth living, because in such a world, big and small truths get drowned out.

Is there a way out of this morass? There is, but it is a road infrequently traveled. It means respecting the essential humanity of my opponent and accepting as much of her/his arguments as my conscience and integrity permit. It means accurately describing their positions and not distorting them. Are we up to the challenge? I have a deep hope in God, and a flicker of hope for all humanity because we are all created in God’s image.

The Judge’s ruling ironically favors both Willis and Trump

Judge Scott McAfee issued his decision this morning about the Georgia trial regarding former president Trump’s election interference. On the one hand, the judge decided that the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis can continue on the case in spite of her romantic relationship with the special prosecutor. Ironically, his ruling favors both Willis and Trump, but is a setback for the American people.

The good news for Willis is that she can continue her legal career, although the judge criticized her for using poor judgment.

The good news for Trump is that his lawyers now have more fodder to delay this and the other trials until after the November election. Trump knows that a significant number of citizens would not vote for him if he were convicted of a felony. It should be obvious to all that his strategy is to stall, stall, stall. If he could just stall until the election, and if he would win, he could make all the trials disappear. Even if he were guilty, he would be “above the law”.

I am disappointed by everyone who favors this stalling tactic. Our citizens deserve to know whether Trump is found to be “guilty” or “not guilty” by a jury of his peers… before the election. In our country, nobody is supposed to be above the law, not even a president. Stalling is an attempt to distort justice.

The trial is to decide whether Trump tried to steal the 2020 election in Georgia. He officially lost the election in Georgia by 11,779 votes. We have a recording of the phone call from Trump to the Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (a conservative Republican) on January 2, 2021. I suggest listening to the entire conversation, but here are the pertinent quotes:

Raffensperger – “Well Mr. President, the challenge that you have is, the data you have is wrong…. We believe that we do have an accurate election.”

Trump – “Look Brad. I got to get … I have to find 12,000 votes.”

Most objective people who listen to the tape acknowledge that the former president attempted to steal the election. Listen to his own words… and you be judge.

Elderly Men and Mental Gaffes: Biden, Trump… and Scott

Elderly Men and Mental Gaffes: Biden, Trump… and Scott

Getting older! It happens to all of us. Although increased wisdom can come with added years, many of us also experience a decline in our physical and mental abilities. It can be difficult to contemplate intentionally reducing our public activities due to this decline.

This is the situation before us in our national political situation. A week ago, special counsel Robert Hur issued his report in which he concluded that President Joe Biden was not guilty of any criminal activity in his handling of sensitive government documents. Nevertheless, he also wrote that Biden was a “well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory”. Biden’s mental gaffes are well-known. In his attempt to refute the poor memory accusation, he gave a talk in which he confused the leaders of Egypt and Mexico.

On the other hand, former President Donald Trump has also committed his share of memory gaffes. The most recent was a campaign speech in which he confused Republican Nikki Haley with Democrat leader Nancy Pelosi. Both men are of advanced age and make many mental mistakes. So do I. Although I am not as old as Biden and Trump, I am not far behind. I show the wear and tear of my years in my body and in my mind.

Should Biden or Trump drop out of the race for the presidency at this late date? Is there a precedent? Yes, there is. Back in 1968, President Lyndon Johnson dropped out of his race for re-election in March. I personally believe that the two main political parties (and therefore, the nation itself) would be better off, if Trump or Biden (or both) would drop out. Age and mental acuity are not the only issues. Biden’s handling of the border crisis has not been great (although Republican representatives in Congress are also at fault). Trump’s legal problems are even worse. He has already been found guilty of sexual assault/rape and financial fraud. If the other trials take place this year, he will likely be convicted of other, serious crimes.

Who do I suggest take the place of these men? Although I disagree with some of her policy proposals, Nikki Haley would do a far, far better job as president than Trump. In my opinion, he is morally repugnant, at all levels. On the Democrat side, among the many potential candidates, I would like to see Michelle Obama. She is smart, and of even more importance, very wise due to her life experiences. In addition, her life partner would make a great first “First Gentleman”.