On Friday, the Supreme Court issued a ruling that was the most significant rebuke to President Trump’s agenda to date: his widespread use of tariffs. By a 6-3 margin (with conservative justices Neil Gorsuch, Amy Conan Barrett, and John Roberts joining their more liberal colleagues) the high court claimed that Trump’s sweeping global tariffs issued under a 1977 emergency powers law, did in fact exceed presidential authority. Writing for the majority, Chief Justice Roberts said the Constitution “very clearly” gives Congress the power to impose taxes, including tariffs, and Trump had not shown there was an emergency that would warrant usurping that authority.
Prior to the ruling, the president has exerted a lot of pressure on the Court and predicted that if the Court ruled against his tariffs, our economy would suffer catastrophic disaster. He had arrogantly lied that the tariffs had ushered in a golden era of U.S. economic dominance and huge revenues were pouring into the U.S. Treasury and were paid for by foreign countries. The truth is that tariffs are true taxes paid by U.S. importers (think Walmart) and then largely passed on to American consumers. “A tax by any other name is still a tax.” Therefore, tariffs are quite unpopular with U.S customers. National polls consistently indicate that 60%-66% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s tariffs.
Traditionally, Republicans have opposed tax increases. Therefore, most GOP Senators and Representatives do not like the tariffs, but they have not had the courage to publicly go against Trump. The Supreme Court’s ruling was a gift to them, because classifying the tariffs as illegal, these Republicans thought they could avoid the fallout caused by tariff induced inflation. The Supreme Court’s ruling had given the president an easy “off ramp” and many Republicans wanted Trump’s adventurism just to go away. But Trump was too stubborn to just accept this gift in disguise. He blasted the Court and threw a temper tantrum, calling Conan Barrett and Gorsuch fools, disloyal, lap dogs and unpatriotic. Then he downplayed the importance of the high court’s ruling. “Their decision is incorrect,” he said. “But it doesn’t matter because we have very powerful alternatives.”
After the ruling was announced, the president pledged to impose a new global ten percent tariff under a law that has never been used to apply to tariffs before. He later increased this percentage to 15% on all nation without any rhyme or reason regarding trade varying trade imbalances. After 150 days, this tariff increase would require an extension to be approved by Congress. Many elected Republican officials are quite anxious about casting their vote on such an unpopular extension because it would negatively affect their chances of winning in the mid-term elections.
The Supreme Court’s ruling left some items unresolved. The court did not decide whether companies could recover billions of dollars already paid in taxes, even as federal figures show more than $133 billion was collected. The decision will go down to lower courts and probably drag on for several weeks, or even months. There are additional issues on the Supreme Court’s plate such as voting rights and birth right citizenship. Will the conservatives hold together, or will they show more independence and fracture?
It is also not clear how many Republicans in Congress will begin to break with Trump. His control has been almost total, but will he begin to be seen as an increasingly unsuccessful and weak lame duck?