Trump’s war with Iran has now passed the two-week mark. The U.S./Israeli military dominance has been quite evident, as expected, and they now virtually control the airspace over Iran. Although the United States has taken out many of Iran’s ballistic missile launching sites, the Iranian forces have proven to be resilient. Through their use of mines, they have essentially stopped the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by more than 60 cents a gallon, and the international price of Brent crude oil has soared to over $100 a barrel. This war has not been very popular in the United States with only about 40% of Americans in favor of it (this is the lowest rate for conflicts in the last eighty years). This has been due, in part, to contradictory reasons for the war that the White House has offered: regime change, the fear of imminent attacks, human right violations, the threat of developing nuclear weapons, etc.
Secretary of Defense Hegseth has claimed the end of the war will depend on President Trump, who has confirmed this by saying “it will end when I feel it in my bones”. Nevertheless, the presidential options are quickly diminishing, There are essentially three exit strategies. (1) A negotiated peace in which each side “saves face” by agreeing to commitments they probably won’t keep. Given that Trump has demanded “unconditional surrender”, his pursuing this option is quite unlikely. (2) Trump could declare “victory’ and then just walk away. This end game has taken place in previous military conflicts, but here it would have quite negative results. Oil production and the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would still be reduced for months or even years, and could lead to a worldwide recession. Russia would be the “winner” due to increased oil revenue. In addition, Iran would also continue to control their nuclear stockpiles. Or (3) the conflict drags on, requires the presence of U.S. “boots on the ground”, and turns into an “endless war’ that Trump campaigned against. His MAGA base could possibly abandon him and he might not finish his term in office.
Trump is largely responsible for these reduced options. Blinded by his quick “success” in Venezuela, he was too proud to pay attention to the advice of his intelligence community, which warned against going to war with Iran. This was a war of choice, not of necessity. He did not seek nor did he obtain war authorization from Congress which is required by the Constitution. And he still hasn’t addressed the American people on why we needed to go to war. When oil prices skyrocketed up, he shrugged it off and said this would bring in more revenue to the U.S. Treasury, given that we are net exporters of oil. Perhaps the most damaging has been his nonchalant attitude towards the death of thirteen American soldiers, of at least 1300 civilians killed in Iran, including the 150+ little Iranian girls killed in the U.S. attack on their elementary school. At first, Trump denied it was an American attack, but then grudgingly admitted it. His comment, “people get killed in wars”, shows a lack of basic human compassion.
The Good Book says that pride goes before a fall. May the president humble himself before he causes the deaths of even more people. Although the off ramps are negative, it is time to end this war of choice.