Trump’s Plan to End the War in Ukraine: Concessions and Non-negotiables

On the campaign trail, Trump promised that he would end the war in Ukraine BEFORE he took office on January 20. Of course, no sane person believed that promise and of course, Trump did not fulfill his pledge. Nevertheless, Trump does deserve some credit for attempting to end the war. Last night, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian “president” Putin in a preliminary meeting to suggest a temporary ceasefire. It is in everyone’s interest (Ukraine, Russia, United States, Europe) for this war to end and a “just peace” to  emerge in which both Ukraine and Russia are in agreement with the terms.

This will not be easy. A poll came out overnight in which 59% of Americans believe that a just peace is unlikely or very doubtful. Both countries have non-negotiables and both sides will have to make significant concessions. Here are the most important issues.

Territory integrity – I believe Ukraine is right in demanding territory integrity, that is, the boundaries be the same as prior to the war: Russian occupied lands in eastern Ukraine should be returned.  Although Ukraine would also like Crimea to be returned, this wish list item might need to be sacrificed. One option is for the United Nations to study and vote on the status of Crimea some time in the intermediate future.

Membership in NATO – Ukraine wants to join NATO for its future security. Of course, Russia does not want an additional large, NATO member as its next-door neighbor for its own security reasons. Although desiring to join NATO is a legitimate goal, I would be willing to see this deferred for 5-10 years in order for a peace agreement to take place.

Putin’s Responsibility – It is obviously clear to sane people that Putin started this war. He was the aggressor. His reckless invasion has caused the deaths of many thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians. Justice requires that Putin make some financial remuneration for the deaths that he caused and for the rebuilding of Ukraine. It is doubtful that Putin would admit any guilt. Tyrants seldom acknowledge any mistakes. (Trump knows this all too well.) My suggestion is that Europe and the United States magnanimously and jointly offer to pay for much of the rebuilding of Ukraine. This would be a more economical option than continuing to finance an unnecessary war.

Trump has chosen a difficult challenge: Bringing about a just peace. I hope he can achieve the “art of the deal”.