Trump Has Had a Terrible October… The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

October has not been good to President Trump. He has implemented many policies that are ethically deficient and economically disastrous. With just a few days left in the month, here are the good, the bad and the ugly.

The Good

Before I dive into the long list of bad events in Trump’s October, I will mention the one (semi) positive action of his presidency: he deserves credit for brokering a ceasefire in Gaza. Nevertheless, he was premature, naïve and arrogant in labeling it as an “everlasting peace” The ceasefire has held…barely but the president does seem to be trying to follow through on his commitments. He sent the top people in his cabinet to Israel last week: Special Envoy Witkoff, VP Vance, and Secretary of State Rubio. When israel’s Knesset voted in favor of annexing parts of the West Bank, Trump said “Never”. I hope he keeps his word about the Gazans having “self-determination”. This sounds like a “2 state” solution, at best, or at the very least, a permanent international peace council that guarantees stability in Gaza. (the latest bad news is that Israel has renewed heavy bombing in Gaza.)
If Trump would use his “art of the deal” skills to broker a just, lasting peace in Ukraine, I might even support his Noble Peace Prize quest.

The Bad

George Santos was one of the most despicable members of the House of Representatives in recent history. He was elected to the House in 2022 and was sworn in as a member in January, 2023 but evidence soon surfaced regarding his lack of integrity. Santos admitted to having lied about his education and employment history, and his disclosures about his business activities, income, and personal wealth were sketchy at best. Furthermore, he had not disclosed his criminal history or the existence of lawsuits against him. Following an investigation by the House Ethics Committee and a federal indictment, the House of Representatives (including half of the Republicans) voted 311–114 to expel Santos on December 1, 2023. He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identity theft in August 2024. He was sentenced to 87 months in prison, but had only served three months when President Trump commuted his sentence a week ago. Although presidents have the authority to pardon federal prisoners and/or commute their sentences, there was no good reason for Trump to show him leniency (except for the fact that both are frequently guilty of lying).
“It’s the economy, stupid.” This phrase was coined by James Carville, a strategist/advisor for Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in 1992, but it aptly applies to the highest priority for most American voters. Trump made the economy his most important theme in the 2024 campaign. He repeatedly promised that he would “lower prices” on groceries, housing, energy, etc. Note carefully: this means an inflation rate of below zero. Last week, even during the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that inflation rose 0.3% during the month of September for an annual rate of over 3%. This is slightly worse than the inflation rate during the last year of the Biden presidency. Nevertheless, many Americans “feel” that inflation is much worse. Coffee prices are up 20% and beef is up 15%, American voters might be more forgiving if the president at least made some effort to lower inflation instead of his obsession with tariffs (=tax increases) or bailing out Argentina (see below).
“Don’t cry for me Argentina.” Out of the clear blue, Trump offered the Argentina government a $20 billion “bailout” now, with a promise of another $20 billion in the near future. This has no relationship with making America great again. Rather, it seems to be due to Trump’s friendship with Argentina’s austerity president Javier Milei. This bailout has raised opposition from two of Trump’s traditional supporters: farmers and ranchers. and they are angry. Trump’s tariffs on China prompted them to stop all purchases of U.S. soybeans. Now they are buying soybeans from Argentina. The president then aggravated his supporters even more by buying tons and tons of beef from Argentina to bring down meat prices for American consumers.
The Federal Government shutdown is now the second longest in US history. The Democrats blame the Republicans…and vice versa. Furloughed Federal employees are working without pay. Air travel is reduced as many air traffic controllers are calling in sick. The SNAP food program runs out of funds on November 1st and 42 million recipients (children, women, retirees, and veterans) will no longer be eligible to receive food. The USDA has blocked release of contingency funds which were designed to cover shutdowns (funds already authorized by Congress). Back in 2013, businessman Trump said that a government shutdown is due to the president’s lack of leadership, because a strong leader would bring all the key players into a room and negotiate a fair deal. The American people agree with the earlier Trump and generally blame the damage caused by a federal shutdown on the person in the White House.
President Trump has flirted with the idea of running for a third term as president. The 22^nd Amendment to the Constitution prohibits a person from being elected to the presidency a third time. Even the Speaker of the House Johnson has grown some backbone and now confirms the Constitution’s prohibition of a third presidency. Many are seeing Trump’s flirtation with a third term as covering up his fear of becoming a “lame duck” president so early into his 2^nd term.
The national polls reveal the country’s growing discontent. Trump won the presidential election last year with slightly less than 50% of the popular vote. As he began his presidency, the polls showed he had an approval rate of about 54-58%. Those same polls now show his approval rate ranging between 37 and 42%. After his disastrous debate performance with Trump last year, former President Biden’s weak approval rate was the same as Trump’s is today.
This brief analysis of bad news could continue for quite a while. To keep it short, here is just an additional listing: a judge’s ruling against ICE in Chicago, the on again/of again trade/tariff talks with China, Trump is still getting played by Putin as the war in Ukraine goes way past Day One, getting sued by 25 states over SNAP, having to shake up the leadership of ICE, the warlike strikes against boats off of Venezuela and Colombia without getting authorization from Congress.

The Ugly

President Trump has repeatedly declared that he would not object to the Jeffrey Epstein files being released to the public. At the same time, he has doggedly fought against their release. Through Speaker Mike Johnson, Adelita Grijalva has been blocked from being sworn into her seat in the House because her vote would force the files to be released. All of this has led to speculation that the files have some horrible “dirt” on the president. The people deserve to know the truth…even if it is ugly.
The Big Beautiful? Ballroom. In the midst of the shutdown when many are not receiving their paychecks and their kitchens are bare, Trump initiated the destruction of the East Wing of the People’s House in order begin construction of the White House Ballroom which would seat 999 guests. He had promised it would be adjacent to, but not touching, the East Wing. He lied. The East Wing is now totally gone. Its destruction symbolizes the more serious destruction of our democracy. Truly ugly.

Let’s hope the news gets better after Halloween.

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Budget Bill”: Are Republicans Gaining the Whole World of Wealthy Donors, but Losing Their Soul?

This past week Republicans in the House of Representative passed President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Budget Bill”. It is really big, but is it beautiful? It is a megabill that funds a laundry list of items on the president’s agenda. It now needs to go the Senate, where it will likely be modified and then returned to the House for “reconciliation”.

Budgets are moral documents, insofar as they represent one’s priorities. It is appropriate to raise moral questions about this legislation. Will this budget bill help or hurt most Americans, but especially our poorest citizens? Is it beautiful or is it selfishness disguised as efficiency?

What might Jesus of Nazareth say about this big, beautiful budget bill? Jesus (revered as the Son of God by billions around the globe, and as a great moral teacher by many others) taught a lot about money and economics. He warned that human greed is deceitful and destroys true life. He raised a probing question: What does it profit a person to gain the whole world, if they lose their soul? (Mark 8:36) If many people are losing their soul, their conscience, their compassion for others, this loss of our soul will be felt by “the least of these” that Jesus loved so much.

Jesus also warned his followers that human rulers usually lord it over their fellow citizens, while at the same time, they lie about all the “good” they are doing for people. (Luke 22:25) Therefore, we the people need to be diligent and discern the truth from the propaganda misinformation that comes at us from both sides of the aisle. I would like to “forward” Jesus’s question to the Republican members of the House of Representatives. Although they claim this bill would do so much good, if it hurts our neediest neighbors, are we losing our soul?

Since both Republicans and Democrats tend to spin information for their own advantage, what sources can we trust? I suggest the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It is nonpartisan. Both Republicans and Democrats love the CBO when it backs up their claims, but they both hate it when it reveals their distortions and disinformation. (“Figures never lie, but liars do figure”) The CBO is the closest thing we have to an impartial “referee” in Congress. The predictions below are the estimates of the CBO based upon the budget bill as currently passed in the House of Representatives.

The most significant items in the bill are (1) the renewal of the Trump 2017 income tax legislation scheduled to end this year; (2) cuts in Medicare and Medicaid benefits; (3) cuts in food stamp benefits / SNAP.

Democrats claim that the legislation favors the very rich whereas Republicans affirm that the budget bill is beautiful for all citizens, especially the middle class and the poorest people. The CBO estimates that, due to the provisions of this bill, the wealthiest 10% of the population will see a 4% increase in their wealth next year. The CBO predicts the poorest 10% of our people will see a 2% decline in their income next year and a 4% drop in the following year.
President Trump promised not to cut Medicare or Medicaid benefits. The CBO predicts over $800 billion will be cut from these programs. Republicans claim most of this is due to waste, fraud, and the removal of “dead people” on the list who are currently receiving benefits. The CBO denies these claims. It sure seems to me that Trump broke his promise and would sign this legislation.
The CBO claims that the “big, beautiful” bill will add to our national debt by at least $3.3 trillion. Republicans don’t like this prediction and they claim the CBO (the official referee) underestimates the growth in our economy. During his first term, Trump predicted his economic plans would not add to the debt. He was very wrong. His supporters seem to forget that Trump increased the national debt by $7.8 trillion during his first administration (the highest jump in any four-year term).
There are major changes in health care, especially in Medicaid and “Obamacare”. The CBO predicts that 13 million Americans would no longer have health insurance. Here again, Republicans don’t like these figures and they claim the CBO is “wrong”

Food stamps (the SNAP program) currently serves one-in-eight Americans each month. This bill would cut $230 billion over ten years, literally taking food out of people’s mouths.
Some of the provisions of the bill do help low wage earners (for example, no taxes on tips). Nevertheless, these are mere “crumbs” compared with the lavish deductions given to the very rich.

As I affirmed at the beginning of this post, budget bills are moral documents that should be evaluated by their (estimated) consequences. I choose to use the criteria taught by Jesus: What happens to the “least of these” among us? According to his standards, this bill does not seem very beautiful. In fact, it is quite ugly.

Why Would Anyone Trust Trump on Trade and Tariffs? “BE COOL” is Not an Adequate Answer

Why Would Anyone Trust Trump on Trade and Tariffs? “BE COOL” is Not an Adequate Answer

This has been a chaotic week for the U.S. economy. Late in the afternoon on Wednesday, April 2, President Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes across the board with all of the United States trading partners (except Russia). The president proclaimed this “Liberation Day” in which he would level the economic playing field, by applying reciprocal tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. equal to the percentage that countries impose on our exports. (The conservative Cato Institute sharply criticized the administration for inflating the percentages. For example, Trump claimed that India imposed a 52% tariff on U.S. goods, although the real amount was 12%.) The Dow Jones fell 1679 points, a 4% decline. The NASDAQ fell almost 6% and the Standard and Poor sank 4.8%. On Friday, they continued their decline. Over the weekend, national and international stock exchanges continued to crash. Leading economic advisers predicted that a recession was more likely than not. This past Wednesday morning, Trump tweeted “BE COOL” trying to persuade investors to start buying stocks and not to continue the sell-off. The situation became even more dire. Retirees saw their savings decline by over 10%. By noon, Trump knew he had to do something. He announced a ninety-day pause on almost all of the tariffs. (Some say, “he flinched”, or “he caved”, or “he retreated”. The Dow Jones which had been down a thousand points skyrocketed, and set a record for the largest turnaround in a single day. People hoped that the surge would continue yesterday (Thursday). It did not, because a China – U.S. trade war still looms on the horizon. China has imposed a tariff of 125% on U.S. products whereas Trump has placed a tariff/tax of 145% on Chinese items. The Dow Jones sank another 1000 points.

Trump’s tragic history with businesses – Anyone who knows the history of Donald Trump, the businessman, should not want him to be the CEO of our national economy. Although Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy, he has filed for chapter eleven corporate bankruptcy on six of his companies:

1991: Trump Taj Mahal
1992: Trump Castle Hotel & Casino
1992: Trump Plaza Casino
1992: Trump Plaza Hotel
2004: Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts
2009: Trump Entertainment Resorts

Apparently, Trump has not learned from these mistakes. In fact, he does not even admit that they were mistakes. He claims these were savvy business practices. He personally did not lose much money…, his stock owning partners had colossal losses. These bankruptcies do not include the now defunct Trump University in which Trump was ordered to pay $25 million to the students who were swindled.

Some Trump supporters like to refer to his first presidential term (2017-2021) as a wonderful economic “success”. Nothing could be further from the truth! During that administration, Trump increase the national debt by $7.8 trillion. This was the largest increase in the national debt ever by a president in a four-year period! (Whether individually or nationally, irresponsible people can be “successful and happy” if they don’t have to pay the bills.)

Where Do We Go From Here?

This economic crisis is not due to a Covid 19 pandemic nor due to a natural disaster. This came about due to the irrational decision by one man, Donald J. Trump… and his “yes men” (like convicted trade adviser Peter Navarro). Elon Musk has repeatedly called Navarro a “moron”. It remains to be seen which man, Musk or Navarro, will win this squabble and which one will have to leave.

Trump is enamored with tariffs and has been for a long time. The overwhelming majority of trained economists disagree with Trump. Tariffs are taxes which are paid by importers, who then pass along these added expenses to the prices for consumers. Tariffs go against the logic of “comparative advantage” of free market capitalism. Tariffs are a form of protectionism which rewards inefficient national industries. This is why conservative economists oppose tariffs. On this issue, liberal economists agree with their conservative counterparts.

The trade war will probably continue until either the U.S. or the Chinese economy approaches the breaking point, because the Chinese and Trump are very stubborn. After pronouncing the beautiful economic benefits of tariffs, it is extremely difficult for Trump to walk back this policy and now to acknowledge it was mistake. But if inflation starts rising dramatically and/or if we enter into a recession, his supporters will demand he reverse his tariff policy. Maybe Trump and the Chinese can reach an agreement on a low reciprocal tariff. Let’s hope so.

I urge my MAGA friends and readers to examine the facts and to evaluate Trump by the consequences of his economic actions.

Trump’s Plan to Eliminate the Federal Income Tax: Why would any Sane Person Support It?

Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has recently floated the idea of eliminating the federal income tax. At first glance, this could be seen as a popular plan. I don’t know anyone who enjoys paying income taxes. Nevertheless, sensible people know that we have to pay our bills, as families and as a nation. The federal government annually receives $2.4 trillion dollars from the collection of personal income taxes, about half of the government’s budget. Common sense reminds us that if you cut your income in half, you must increase your money intake in some other way. Trump claims the funding shortfall could be made up with tariffs on imported goods (see below). Government leaders, including prominent Republicans, have repudiated Trump’s plan while others have suggested that Trump was just “kidding”. Trump responded in his recent interview with Joe Rogan on Friday that he was quite serious about his plan.

It is important for us to remember that during Trump’s presidency (2017-2021), the national debt increased by $7.8 trillion dollars, the largest increase in our country’s history! His idea of raising money by 10-20% tariffs on foreign goods is also quite flawed. Foreign companies and countries would not pay a penny to the U.S. government. The tariffs would be a “sales tax” paid for by U.S. importers who would pass on the higher costs to U.S. consumers! In addition, other countries might retaliate and impose their own tariffs on U.S. products, and thereby hurting companies in our nation.

His plan to implement massive deportation of immigrants is inhumane at a moral level. It is also economical lunacy. Many immigrants work for lower than a minimal wage. If they are deported, labor costs would dramatically increase, especially in the fields of construction, agriculture, and food services. Inflation would skyrocket.

23 winners of the Nobel prize for economics recently wrote a letter to the U.S. public in which they stated, “While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we believe that, overall, Harris’ economic agenda will improve our nation’s health, investment, sustainability, resilience, employment opportunities, and fairness and be vastly superior to the counterproductive economic agenda of Donald Trump.”

We must also remember that many of his businesses (like Trump University) have failed. He has declared bankruptcy multiple times. He has also been found guilty of cheating on his payment of state and federal taxes.

Given this massive quantity of evidence, why would anyone of sound mind trust Trump with our nation’s economy? There might be some reasons for voting for Trump (although his lying, womanizing, felonies, racism, bullying, etc., disqualify him according to my conscience), his economic strategy is horrible,

What to Watch for in the Great Debate: Trump and Harris on the Economy

The great debate takes place tonight. What should we look for? Among the many important issues, I suggest we pay close attention to the economy.

Trump, of course, has a record to run on. How successful was our economy during his four-year administration as president (2017-2021)? Although he claims it was the “greatest the world has ever seen”, the facts tell a different story. During his presidency, the national debt increased by $7.8 trillion dollars (U.S. Treasury Department). This was the largest debt increase in a four-year presidential term in our country’s history! (Caveat: The debt rose $9.1 trillion under Obama, but that occurred over his eight years as president, in contrast with Trump’s four years.) Trump’s large deficit was mostly due to his huge tax cuts for the benefit of the wealthy citizens in our midst. He claimed that tax revenue would show an amazing growth due to a boom in the economy. Of course, he was wrong. The debt increase was similar to indulgent parents who buy their children expensive gifts…and buy them with a credit card. Sooner or later, someone has to pay. In this case, it is the U.S. taxpayer.

If this truth is acknowledged, it is difficult to understand why sane voters would trust Trump on the economy. Let’s look at tariffs. Trump has promised, “We will become a tariff nation”. Tariffs are usually applied on products from foreign nations in order to financially punish those countries, by raising prices and, therefore, reducing sales of those products. Trump has claimed that these tariffs will not increase inflation for U.S. consumers. This is illogical! If retail companies in the United States import products that have higher prices due to tariffs, they will pass on that increase to consumers. Even the editorial board of the conservative Wall Street Journal acknowledges this truth: Higher tariffs, by definition, lead to higher inflation.

Where does Vice-President Harris stand on the economy? Usually sitting vice-presidents are not held accountable for the successes and/or failures of the president. A question arises. Tonight will she “own” the Biden-Harris economy? On the one hand, coming out of the Covid pandemic, the U.S. economy is the “envy” of all the major capitalist nations when evaluated on criteria of jobs, inflation, GDP, etc. On the other hand, many middle-class people don’t “feel” good about their family finances. Housing costs are up. Gasoline prices are up. Grocery prices are up around 22% over the last couple of years. Harris needs to enact policies that will offer relief for the middle class. She has promised that first-time home buyers will be able to obtain up to a $25,000 tax credit for that purchase. This is a very popular policy, especially with undecided younger voters. But how will she pay for this policy? Will she, like Trump, increase the national debt? She says that she will pay for her policies, by increasing taxes on the wealthy. Most middle-class people won’t pay even a penny more in income taxes. I would like to see some clear figures tonight to back up her promises.

In a previous presidential race, the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” became popular. Economic issues determine elections. Who do I trust with our economy? It is not Trump.

John the Baptist: Repentance, our Toxic Hyper-individualism, and economics

We take a break from partisan politics in this blog. Nevertheless, I do want to address religious, economic and cultural themes. During this Advent season of the Christian faith, it is common to read a Biblical passage about John the Baptist. John´s mission was to prepare the way for Jesus the Messiah by preaching a baptism of repentance for the forgiveness of sins. His understanding of repentance was much more than mere regret for our sins. He urged a transformation in all areas of our lives.

Let´s look at Luke´s narrative where John preaches from a passage of the prophet Isaiah which announces God´s salvation for all humanity. The multitudes responded to his message and came to be baptized, but he saw through their hypocrisy and cut through their superficiality.

He told them, ¨Produce fruit in keeping with repentance. And do not begin to say to yourselves, ‘We have Abraham as our father.’ For I tell you that out of these stones God can raise up children for Abraham. The ax is already at the root of the trees, and every tree that does not produce good fruit will be cut down and thrown in the fire.” What should we do then?” the crowd asked. John answered, “Anyone who has two shirts should share with the one who has none, and anyone who has food should do the same.” Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?” Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them. Then some soldiers asked him, “And what should we do?” He replied, “Don’t extort money and don’t accuse people falsely—be content with your pay.” (Luke 3:8-14)

John was asked by three different groups (the crowd, tax collectors, and soldiers) what they should do to demonstrate “fruits of repentance”. His three responses have two aspects in common. First, they all deal with material possessions: shirts, food, and money. We misunderstand Biblical spirituality if we think that it only refers to the non-physical world. Godly spirituality is expressed in this materialistic world (Jesus, the Word became flesh and dwelt among us). John proclaimed the beginning of a new era where we no longer worship money and material things. In a demonstration of the Kingdom of God erupting among us, these material possessions are utilized to bring about our neighbor’s wellbeing.

The second common aspect is that repentance towards God includes just interpersonal relationships. All humans bear God’s image, whether they are the poorest of the poor, tax collectors or taxpayers, soldiers who oppress others or ordinary citizens who suffer oppression. As God’s representatives, all people deserve the love and respect we want to extend towards God.

A radical, but reasonable, standard for our society.

John the Baptist’s message calls into question the toxic hyper/individualism of our culture. According to the Bible, I am not the absolute “owner” of “my” possessions. God wants me to steward the items under my control in such a way that all of my neighbors have enough to live with dignity. This is the ethical norm of ¨Enough¨. No one should have more than they need while others do not have enough. This is radical teaching and I certainly do not live up to this goal. Nevertheless, it is quite reasonable. Good parents practice this ¨enough¨ ethical system with all of their children.
We tend to think that our individualism is good as long as it doesn´t intentionally hurt others. In our culture, individual happiness is perceived as determining the difference between right and wrong. John the Baptist challenges our apathy. Our indifference to our needy neighbors definitely harms them and perhaps leads to their premature death. Sins of omission can be just as deadly as sins of commission.
Our ¨advanced¨ society, at times, argues about how much is a ¨fair¨ minimum wage. For all of its many faults, the Roman Empire knew that all workers should earn a wage that could support a family with dignity. John the Baptist implies this when he claims that soldiers provide for their families with their ¨pay¨.
In their desire to emphasize God´s grace and forgiveness, many churches have downplayed the Biblical teaching regarding repentance, especially these economic and interpersonal dimensions. But God doesn´t merely want to forgive us our past. He wants to free us from the idolatry of money and the tyranny of toxic hyper-individualism. True repentance opens us to God´s grace. (I heartily urge readers to do a word study of repentance in the New Testament to see how it is intimately connected with life and salvation.)

John the Baptist is one of the most unusual characters that emerge from the pages of Scripture, yet his message is more necessary than ever before.