Yesterday, U.S. President Trump and Russian “President” Putin had a lengthy (roughly two hours) phone conversation with the goal of ending the war in Ukraine. I do not fault Trump with reaching out to an authoritarian world leader who is guilty of war crimes (according to the International Criminal Court). I do raise concerns about Russia taking advantage of Trump’s lack of leverage in these negotiations. These conversations already have a history, including Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the White House and talks between Russian and U.S. envoys. In these preliminaries, Trump has made several unnecessary and unhelpful concessions to Putin:
- Trump falsely accused Zelensky of starting the war and Trump defended Putin against charges of being the aggressor (in the UN vote)
- Trump affirmed that Russia would be awarded some land in eastern Ukraine
- Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO
By giving up these concessions up front, the United States has lost its leverage in these talks.
The Good News: Yesterday, Putin agreed to a 30-day limited cease-fire in which Russia would stop strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as long as Ukraine did the same. Putin also agreed to a significant prisoner exchange for later this month.
The Bad News: Putin did NOT agree to a complete 30-day cease-fire. To advance the negotiations, the U.S. cannot provide additional military assistance or intelligence information to Ukraine. Ukraine cannot send more troops to the front. These and other demands are totally unacceptable to Ukraine (and to our European allies).
The Results: Putin gives the impression that he is open and eager to end the war. In fact, he is stalling. Every day the war continues, Russia takes more territory. Trump’s peace initiatives will not be successful, because Putin is not acting in good faith. It sure looks like Trump, the author of “The Art of the Deal”, is getting “played” by Putin.
What can Trump do? He must regain leverage over Putin. He should impose new financial sanctions on Russia. These sanctions can be used as “bargaining chips” which can later be withdrawn if Putin removes his unreasonable demands.
The War in Ukraine: A Bit of Hope, but is Trump Getting “Played” by Putin?
Yesterday, U.S. President Trump and Russian “President” Putin had a lengthy (roughly two hours) phone conversation with the goal of ending the war in Ukraine. I do not fault Trump with reaching out to an authoritarian world leader who is guilty of war crimes (according to the International Criminal Court). I do raise concerns about Russia taking advantage of Trump’s lack of leverage in these negotiations. These conversations already have a history, including Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the White House and talks between Russian and U.S. envoys. In these preliminaries, Trump has made several unnecessary and unhelpful concessions to Putin:
- Trump falsely accused Zelensky of starting the war and Trump defended Putin against charges of being the aggressor (by siding with Russian, North Korea, etc. in the UN vote)
- Trump affirmed that Russia would be awarded some land in eastern Ukraine
- Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO
By giving these concessions up front, the United States has lost its leverage in these talks.
The Good News: Yesterday, Putin agreed to a 30-day limited cease-fire in which Russia would stop strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as long as Ukraine did the same. Putin also agreed to a significant prisoner exchange for later this month.
The Bad News: Putin did NOT agree to a complete 30-day cease-fire. To advance the negotiations, the U.S. cannot provide additional military assistance or intelligence information to Ukraine. Ukraine cannot send more troops to the front. These and other demands are totally unacceptable to Ukraine (and to our European allies).
The Results: Putin gives the impression that he is open and eager to end the war. In fact, he is stalling. Every day the war continues, Russia takes more territory. Trump’s peace initiatives will not be successful, because Putin is not acting in good faith. It sure looks like Trump, the author of “The Art of the Deal”, is getting “played” by Putin.
What can Trump do? He must regain leverage over Putin. He should impose new financial sanctions on Russia. These sanctions can be used as “bargaining chips” which can later be withdrawn if Putin removes his unreasonable demands.