On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their job report for the month of July. Employers added a total of only 73,000 jobs in July, about 50,000 fewer than was expected. It was a significant sign that the economy was slowing down. What was even more troubling was that the report revised downward by 258,000 the number of jobs created in May and June. Combined, this three-month period represents the slowest economic growth since 2009, except for the recession in 2020, during the height of the COVID pandemic. The unemployment rate inched upward from 4.1% to 4.2%. President Trump did not like the report. It indicated that his economic policies, especially tariffs, were not working very well. So, he immediately fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of “rigging” the numbers to tarnish his administration. Of course, any president, including Trump, has the right to raise questions about data reports from the BLS or from any similar agency. But if you question the figures, you need to provide evidence…if you want to be believed. This drama is taking place in plain view before the public in the United States. The American people will be functioning as the “jury” to decide whether Trump or the Bureau of Labor Statistics is more credible.
The Reputation of the BLS and McEntarfer
Over many decades, the BLS has had a reputation for being the “gold standard” of information collection agencies. Its employees take their job seriously. They make economic data public, but they do not make policy recommendations to the President or to Congress. Ms. McEntarfer, a labor economist who has worked in the federal government for more than two decades, was confirmed as BLS Commissioner by the Senate in early 2024 in a bipartisan 86-8 vote. Both Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Republicans), who were Senators at the time voted to confirm her nomination.
The Economic Impact of the Tariffs
The “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by Trump on April 2, 2025, have had a significant impact on the U.S. economy. In the first weeks following Liberation Day, the economy continued strong, as consumers who were able to do so, made big purchases (cars, appliances, etc.) before the added tariffs went into effect. Then the negative consequences began to happen. Trump had promised 90 international trade deals in 90 days, but only a few deals have even been sketched out. Due to the uncertainty created by these “on again-off again” trade negotiations, CEOs were unwilling to expand their productions. In addition, given that these tariffs are essentially taxes that will add to the sticker price of their products, these CEOs had to cautiously predict what would happen to their sales. (Don’t just take my word for this problem. Here are some sad facts from Ford. The automotive giant posted its first quarterly loss in two years after seeing $800 million in tariff costs and predicted that the tariffs would cost the company about $2 billion in annual earnings. In May Ford raised prices on three of its models produced in Mexico due to the impact of the tariffs.)
The Role of Revisions
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has twin concerns: speed and accuracy. For the goal of usefulness, the report must be released as soon as possible after the preceding month’s economic activity has occurred. By necessity, this report is preliminary. As new data is incorporated over the next several weeks, the report is revised. Revisions to preceding job reports are routinely issued when a new one comes out. Trump claims that the revisions announced on Friday show tampering, but such allegations need to be proven with credible evidence. Trump has yet to provide such evidence. As the saying go, “It’s time to put up or shut up.”
The Opinion of an Expert Appointed by Trump
Bill Beach was Erika McEntarfer’s predecessor as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He was nominated to head up the BLS by Trump himself in 2017! Yesterday, Beach denounced the firing. Beach affirmed that Trump did not understand the data collection process and the reporting standards at the bureau, especially the compilation of statistics on critical economic factors including inflation and employment. He sharply took issue with Trump’s accusation of McEntarfer’s tampering with the statistics, There’s no way for that to happen,” Beach told CNN’s Kasie Hunt on yesterday’s “State of the Union” program. “The commissioner doesn’t do anything to collect the numbers. The commissioner doesn’t see the numbers until the Wednesday before they’re published. By the time the commissioner sees the numbers, they’re all prepared.”
Chris Christie’s Evaluation of Trump’s Firing of McEntarfer
Former New Jersey Governor Christ Christie has frequently defended President Trump from criticisms by his adversaries, but not on this issue. The veteran Republican politician described the firing as “classic Trump”. On yesterday’s “This Week” television program, Christie told host George Stephanopoulos. “When Trump gets news he doesn’t like, he needs someone to blame because he won’t take the responsibility himself, and this is the action of a petulant child. Like, ‘You give me bad news, I fire the messenger.'”
The Verdict
In this public “hearing”, you, my readers, are the members of the jury. Who is telling the truth, Trump or the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Please render your verdict.
Lindy Scott 