Where do we go after the Trump Impeachment Trial?

Almost everyone knows that on Saturday the U.S. Senate acquitted former president Trump of the crime of incitement of insurrection for the riot that took place at the capitol on January 6. The vote to convict was 57 to 43, (48 Democrats, the 2 Independent senators, and 7 Republicans voted that Trump was guilty), which was a majority of the Senate, but not the two thirds super majority that was required.

So, where do we go now?

Trump goes to court?

Although Trump was acquitted of the impeachment charge, it is likely that he will be charged in the criminal court system. After the impeachment vote, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell made a somewhat strange speech on the Senate floor in which he stated that the House Managers successfully demonstrated that Trump was “morally and practically guilty” of the crime of incitement, but because Trump was no longer in office, McConnell voted to acquit (many Republican senators who voted to acquit used this same technical argument). I will comment on this technicality below, but McConnell suggested that Trump can (and should) be tried in the criminal or civil courts. “We have a criminal court system…Trump is still liable for everything he did while in office”, including incitement to insurrection and a “disgraceful dereliction of his presidential duty”. Trump’s legal defense team make the same strange argument. In their attempt to obtain the votes of Republican senators who felt squeamish about acquitting Trump, the defense team acknowledged the errors of the former president, and that he could still be punished (by others) in the criminal justice system. This provided the senators an easy and cheap cop-out.

It is likely that Trump will be charged in one or more of the following courts where investigations have already begun:

• New York – Manhattan’s District Attorney’s office. Tax fraud and insurance fraud.
• Washington D.C.’s Attorney General – Incitement to insurrection.
• Georgia Secretary of State – Interference in election results.
• Atlanta/Fulton County’s District Attorney – Interference in election results.
• Civil suits at several sites – sexual assault, abuse of government funds, etc.

We live in a country where, supposedly, no one is above the law. The law should be applied fairly and equitably, regardless of political party, race, wealth, or gender. Because Trump is no longer in office, he does not have the presidential protections that he has enjoyed these past four years. These legal cases should run their regular courses, leading to convictions and penalties or conversely to acquittals, but always based upon the evidence. May the truth win out!

The Future of the Republican Party

                Where is the Republican Party headed?Most people recognize that over the last five years, the Republican Party became the Trump Party. For example, in 2020 the Republican Party decided to not have its own platform, but merely referred to and approved Trump’s policies. Republicans need to decide their own future. Will they still be the Trump Party, will they purge their party of Trump, or will Trump’s influence just gradually fade away? Each of these options is a real possibility.

                Although there has been some slippage of Republican support for Trump after the January 6 riots and the impeachment hearing, 60-75% of Republicans still approve of the former president. Republican senators who voted to convict Trump (like Cassidy and Burr) have received censures from their pro-Trump state parties. Some Republican leaders who ran for the presidency in 2016 (Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio) strongly denounced Trump five years ago, but have praised and defended him ever since. On the other hand, significant Republicans (like Nikki Haley, Jeff Sessions, “Mad Dog” Jim Mattis, Rex Tillerson) held important posts in the Trump administration, but later resigned and accused the president of serious deficiencies. Former Vice-President Mike Pence has been especially quiet these past weeks. The rioters shouted ¨Hang Mike Pence¨ after Trump denounced the VP for not overturning the vote. A Pence political comeback is very difficult.

1. The most likely option is that Trump will try to stay influential within the Republican party. Those who voted against impeachment will receive his support in primaries and the general elections in 2022. He himself may run for president in 2024. Although his base will continue to be enthusiastic about him, Democrats would like this option because a new Trump campaign would trigger more opposition than support. Trump would be an easy target.
2. It is possible that if the Republicans lose the House of Representatives in 2022, Republicans will swing to a new leader (essentially purging Trump). At this point of time, such a leader has not yet appeared. I doubt that it would be Cruz, Pence, or Rubio. Perhaps Haley?
3. There has been some talk (by Anthony Scaramucci and others) of creating a new ¨center-right¨ political party made up of traditional Republicans and with independents disillusioned with Democrats and with Trump. In the short run, this would hurt the Republican party, but it would definitely shake up the political landscape.

Democrats

                President Biden mostly stayed away from the impeachment trial. He needs to concentrate on getting the Covid vaccines out to the public and getting his Covid Relief Bill passed. As I mentioned in my previous blog, he should make some common sense concessions and attempt to reach a bipartisan consensus.

Epilogue

I believe that Senator Mitch McConnell is a hypocrite of the first degree. As I mentioned above, he stated that Trump was morally and actually guilty of incitement of insurrection, but because Trump was already out of office, Mitch voted to acquit. The truth is that the House of Representatives impeached Trump on January 13th. They tried to have the Senate take up the case while Trump was still in office (from January 13-20), but Senator McConnell was the Majority Leader of the Senate at that time and he refused to schedule the hearing during that time period! This is a clear example of hypocrisy.

A vibrant democracy is great in theory, but difficult to keep. God help us!